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David Purdum
Shut downESPN Staff Writer
- Came to ESPN in 2014
- Gaming journalist since 2008
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Doug Kezirian
Shut down
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ESPN- ESPN Sports Betting Analyst
- Host the Daily Bet
- Podcast host behind the bets
After the Tampa Bay Buccaneers just won 60-1 Super Bowl long shots, bettors would love to beat the market this offseason with a quarterback switching teams. However, it’s not that simple. For example, after Carson Wentz landed in a deal with Philadelphia, the Indianapolis Colts only marginally moved their title chances from 25-1 to 20-1. That’s because the quota makers were aware of speculation that Wentz might reunite with his former offensive coordinator, current Colts head coach Frank Reich. So be careful assuming the odds makers believe Wentz is just a minor improvement on Jacoby Brissett. Bookies knew the Colts would land a QB.
While we expect more quarterback movement in the coming weeks, it is still possible to find the golden ticket. All you have to do is read the tea leaves. The fact that some bettors speculated around this time last year that the Bucs might land an all-timer like Tom Brady is all the more impressive.
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Sports betting analyst Doug Kezirian from Daily Wager and Chalk and sports betting reporter David Purdum give us odds, nuggets and notes about the sports betting landscape every week.
Here’s what we’re keeping an eye on this week:
Field support: Each sporting season takes on its own identity, and this college basketball year has been dominated by two programs: Baylor and Gonzaga. They’re the only ones going to go undefeated, and many assume that at some point they will cut the nets. Caesar’s William Hill now allows bettors to bet on that very concept. In a proposition bet released this week, bettors can either bet on the bears or bulldogs who will win everything (+105) or you can take the field (-125). – Doug Kezirian
Upward trend: Betting trends are mostly fun facts, but some are hard to ignore. For example, the Brooklyn Nets have crossed the finish line in 21 of their last 25 games. Conventional considerations suggest that it is obvious that the nets are more likely to be overwhelmed by their scoring opportunities and defensive limitations. But odds makers are aware of these concepts and include all of that in the line, which is why the net totals are usually the highest they play each night (235 on Sunday night). That’s what makes this final run so much wilder.
NBA: What an ATS run of jazz
MLB: World Series odds and more
• Dodgers open with historic overall wins
NFL: Chiefs favorite of 21s champions
ESPN chalk home
Additionally, the New Orleans Pelicans have finished 21-3-1 in their last 24 games. This is due to the fact that a team ranks seventh in offensive efficiency and third worst in defensive efficiency. The odds makers know this too, but somehow the over still paid off. – Doug Kezirian
Trending Down: The Cleveland Cavaliers failed to cover the spread in 13 consecutive games, tying them for the longest such streak in the past 32 seasons, according to ESPN Stats and Information. The 2000-01 Cavaliers also had a streak of 13 straight losses against the spread. – David Purdum
Timing is everything: Apparently more than any other sport, the NBA offers lucrative in-game betting options that actually pay off. It was only last week that the networks recovered from a 22-point deficit against the Suns in the third quarter and took 20-1 money-line bets. One bettor turned $ 200 into $ 4,200. By the very next night, the Golden State Warriors were 15 points behind the Miami Heat in the fourth quarter to win in overtime. The dubs were 16-1 on the money line. A William Hill bettor in Indiana won over $ 2K, beating the Warriors 9-1. And on Sunday the Pelicans scored 25: 1 to 24 against the Celtics, with New Jersey weather conceding 14: 1. – Doug Kezirian
Tax burden: Even though the weather was forced to lay more wood than they should, the Utah jazz just kept covering up. Before jazz fell to the Los Angeles Clippers on Friday night, it set a 19-1-1 record against the Spread (ATS) in 21 games (20 overall wins). It’s just amazing. Any quota makers who could do to offset the anticipated avalanche of Utah money are taxing Jazz a little higher on the point spread. But score one point for the odds makers as the Jazz closed on the clips as a two point underdog despite this ridiculous run. – Doug Kezirian
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Merlin Magic: There is often news about tickets with large amounts or large long-shot odds, but rarely do we see the combination of big bucks in the long run. Last week BetMGM reported a $ 10,000 stake with the Washington Wizards to win the NBA Championship at odds of 500: 1. The ticket brings in $ 5 million. The wizards sit between 10 and 17 but have won four games in a row and are currently only three games behind a playoff spot.
My sources tell me that this bettor often beats the final number and is fairly respected, but he is also allowed to bet large amounts. Either way, the pick is a head scratcher. On the other hand, the upcoming Hall of Famer Kevin Garnett once sworn us that anything is possible, and I imagine this is even more the case with a season full of pandemic-related unknowns. – Doug Kezirian
Guessing game: Major League Baseball is reportedly killing the ball this season in response to recent increases in home races, and odds makers are trying to figure out how much that will affect the goal.
“My honest answer is I have no idea,” said Randy Blum, baseball odds maker for the SuperBook in Westgate Las Vegas. “Who knows, behind closed doors, what they really do with baseball, if anything?”
“It’s similar to last year when people asked how the NL with the DH would affect the totals,” added Blum. “When you talk about sums, it’s the same answer we gave last year – it’s really about the pitching.” – David Purdum
MLB wins overall movement: The three teams that saw the earliest move after William Hill US Sportsbook released it last week were:
Oakland Athletics from 86.5 to 88.5
St. Louis Cardinals from 86 to 88
Kansas City Royals from 71 to 73.
– David Purdum
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